Key result
Simulations showed that the default surveillance capacity of 450 herds per day is sufficient to control a hypothetical FMD epidemic, and enlarging the protection zone to 5 km improved outcomes without increasing economic losses.
Simulation modeling suggests that current surveillance capacity is sufficient for FMD control in Denmark, and enlarging the protection zone may be a better strategy than current regulations.
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May guide FMD contingency planning; leaves open real-world validation before policy adoption.
Halasa et al. (2014) studied Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) (n=50,853). Enlarged protection (5 km) and/or surveillance zones (15-20 km) with varying surveillance capacities vs. Basic scenario (3 km protection zone, 10 km surveillance zone, 450 herds/day capacity) was evaluated on Epidemic duration, number of infected herds, and total economic costs. Simulations showed that the default surveillance capacity of 450 herds per day is sufficient to control a hypothetical FMD epidemic, and enlarging the protection zone to 5 km improved outcomes without increasing economic losses.
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