Bridging the Gap between Analysis and Prediction – Towards the Development of an Integrated Predictive Model for Hybrid Threat Risk Assessment

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This article analyses the common patterns of recent hybrid threats, highlighting some representative cases such as: the information warfare during the US elections (2020), the COVID-19 vaccine disinformation campaign (2020-2021), and the energy crisis in Europe (2021-2022), in order to identify the existence of potential synergies between different tactics (cyber, information, economic) depending on the specific context. On the basis of these patterns, the article proposes the essential parameters of a predictive hybrid threat analysis model (including geopolitical, cyber, economic, social, media, political and technological factors) with the aim of facilitating proactive responses to this type of threats in modern society.