Key result
A simple seven-point predictive score based on left atrial dilatation, mitral valve disease, and age identified patients at high risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation (30.5% overall incidence).
Why the study?
Does a 7-point predictive score based on left atrial dilatation, mitral valve disease, and age identify patients at high risk of developing new onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after non-emergent cardiac surgery?
Cohort (n=999)
Does a 7-point predictive score based on left atrial dilatation, mitral valve disease, and age identify patients at high risk of developing new onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after non-emergent cardiac surgery?
A simple 7-point preoperative risk score incorporating left atrial dilatation, mitral valve disease, and age can identify patients at high risk for new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery.
May aid preoperative risk stratification before cardiac surgery; leaves open prospective validation and impact of targeted interventions.
This project set out to derive a prediction rule based on preoperative clinical variables to identify patients with high risk of developing atrial fibrillation following cardiac surgery. Methods: Prospectively collected data from a perioperative database was corroborated with chart review to identify eligible patients who had non-emergent surgery in 2010. Details on 28 preoperative variables were collected and significant predictors (p<0.2) were inserted into multivariable logistic regression and recursive partitioning. Results: 305 (30.5%) of 999 patients developed new onset postoperative atrial fibrillation. Eleven variables were significantly associated with atrial fibrillation, however, both final models included only three: left atrial dilatation, mitral valve disease and age. Bootstrapping with 5000 samples confirmed that both final models provide consistent predictions. Coefficients from the logistic regression model were converted into a simple seven point predictive score. Conclusions: This simple risk score can identify patients at higher risk of developing atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery.
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DiemThu Thi Tran (2013) conducted a cohort in Postoperative atrial fibrillation (n=999). Preoperative clinical variables (left atrial dilatation, mitral valve disease, age) was evaluated on New onset postoperative atrial fibrillation. A simple seven-point predictive score based on left atrial dilatation, mitral valve disease, and age identified patients at high risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation (30.5% overall incidence).
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