Demographic and clinical predictors of post-operative atrial fibrillation in cardio-surgical patients

AIMS: Post-operative atrial fibrillation is defined as an episode of atrial fibrillation that occurs 1-5 days after a surgical procedure in patients without a previous history of atrial fibrillation. Multiple factors such as demographics, cardiac surgical, endogenous, or mental health may relate to post-operative atrial fibrillation.The aim of this study was to identify multivariable high-risk factors for post-operative atrial fibrillation and to propose a risk-assessment tool. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cross-sectional observational study was conducted in a University Hospital of Greece. Predictor variables examined demographic and clinical variables, anxiety, depression, health-related quality of life, frailty, perioperative mortality (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II), and 10-year survival/mortality risk (Charlson Comorbidity Index score). The outcome variable was post-operative atrial fibrillation. Multivariable analysis was assessed to identify predictors of post-operative atrial fibrillation.Ninety-one patients were included in our sample. Post-operative atrial fibrillation was diagnosed in 44 (48.4%). Factors associated with post-operative atrial fibrillation are the following: age group of 66-75 years [OR 5.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37-24.34], Charlson Comorbidity Index score (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.07-1.89), and hours of mechanical ventilation (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.06). The Charlson Comorbidity Index score was identified as an independent predictor of post-operative atrial fibrillation (exp: 1.412, 95% CI: 1.017-1.961). CONCLUSION: Patients with post-operative atrial fibrillation had a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index score. The Charlson Comorbidity Index was identified as an independent clinical predictor of post-operative atrial fibrillation. The risk-assessment tool proposed includes age, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, and hours of mechanical ventilation. Future studies are needed to establish such an assessment.