Key result
The Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score (ERAS) best predicted 30-day mortality in rAAA patients (AUC 0.718; 95% CI 0.601-0.817), significantly outperforming the Hardman index (P=0.016).
Why the study?
Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms cause high mortality and early prediction can save lives, prompting a comparison of various scoring systems predicting mortality.
Does the ERAS model improve the prediction of 30-day mortality compared to other scoring systems in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm?
Cohort
No
Does the ERAS model improve the prediction of 30-day mortality compared to other scoring systems in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm?
Effect estimate: AUC 0.718 (95% CI 0.601-0.817)
p-value: p=0.016
The Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score (ERAS) may be the most accurate among evaluated models for predicting 30-day mortality in patients undergoing emergency surgery for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms.
ERAS had highest AUC for rAAA mortality; leaves open clinical utility pending multicenter prospective validation.
BACKGROUND: Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (rAAAs) are a serious disease that can lead to high mortality; thus, their early prediction can save patients' lives. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracies of various models for predicting rAAA mortality-including the Glasgow Aneurysm Score, Vancouver Scoring System, Dutch Aneurysm Score, Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score (ERAS), and Hardman index-based on rAAA treatment outcomes at our institution. METHODS: Between 2016 and 2022, we retrospectively analyzed the early outcome data-including 30-day mortality-of patients who underwent emergency surgery for rAAA at our institution. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to compare the aneurysm scoring systems for mortality using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The AUC was better for the ERAS (0.718; 95% confidence interval, 0.601-0.817) than for the other scoring systems. Significant differences were observed between ERAS and Hardman indices (difference: 0.179; P = 0.016). No significant differences were found among the Glasgow Aneurysm Score, Vancouver Scoring System, and Dutch Aneurysm Score predictive risk models. CONCLUSIONS: Among the models for predicting mortality in patients with rAAA, the ERAS model demonstrated the highest AUC value; however, significant differences were only observed between ERAS and Hardman indices. This study may help develop strategies for improving rAAA prediction.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Lee et al. (2024) conducted a cohort in Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (rAAAs). Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score (ERAS) vs. Glasgow Aneurysm Score, Vancouver Scoring System, Dutch Aneurysm Score, and Hardman index was evaluated on 30-day mortality prediction accuracy (AUC) (AUC 0.718, 95% CI 0.601-0.817, p=0.016). The Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score (ERAS) best predicted 30-day mortality in rAAA patients (AUC 0.718; 95% CI 0.601-0.817), significantly outperforming the Hardman index (P=0.016).
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: