Comparison of Various Severity Scores in Predicting the Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis - A Single Centre Observational Study

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially fatal disease that can range from mild and self-limiting to rapidly progressive, leading to multiple organ failure and death.Aim: This study aimed to compare various severity scores in predicting outcomes in AP.Methods: This is an observational cross-sectional study conducted from June 2018 to December 2019.Adults diagnosed with AP were included in the study.Results: A total of 57 patients were included, with mean age of patients were 40.07 years.Among them, 36.84% had mild, 35.08% had moderately severe, and 28.07%had severe AP (SAP), with a 10.52% mortality rate in the SAP.Alcohol was the most common cause (59.64%), and abdominal pain was the most frequent symptom (100%).In predicting severity, APACHE II at 48 hours had the highest AUROC of 0.980, with a cut-off score of 9 offering the best sensitivity and specificity compared to other scores.For predicting mortality, APACHE II at 48 hours also had the highest AUROC of 0.992, with a cut-off score of 16 providing the best predictive accuracy. Conclusion:The APACHE II at 48 hours is the best predictor of SAP and mortality and CRP is a reliable parameter, not a score in predicting severity but is an inferior parameter in predicting mortality.