Driving Forces behind Urban Growth: The Impact of Services and Transportation in Greater Cairo

Urban growth is dynamic and driven by multiple factors, making its understanding vital for effective planning, especially in rapidly urbanizing developing countries. This study analyzes the impact of service buildings and transportation infrastructure on urban growth in the Greater Cairo Region before and after Egypt Vision 2030 (2016), aiming to determine which factor has a greater influence. While previous studies have acknowledged their influence, determining which category exerts a greater impact in terms of GCR remains essential. The results indicate that urban growth in the first period was primarily driven by proximity to the old urban area. After the introduction of the Sustainable Development Agenda, urbanization slowed, with a reduced influence of key factors, especially proximity to the old urban area. Services had a greater impact on urban growth than transportation infrastructure, with hospitals (0.4031) and mosques (0.3525) being the strongest factors, while schools had the least effect. This discussion enhances understanding of the complexities of urban growth in megacities.