Exposure risk of maize cropland under compound high-temperature and drought events over Northeast China in response to future warming

With global warming intensifying, the green and low-carbon transition has risen to become an international consensus. As a primary sector for both carbon emissions and sequestration, agriculture's production stability directly determines the success of China's dual carbon goals. The Northeast China (NEC), a key maize production base, has experienced increasingly frequent compound high-temperature and drought events (CHTDEs), threatening the maize production stability. Therefore, this study investigates the current and future exposure of maize cropland, analyzes its relationship with soil organic carbon (SOC), and identifies the main drivers for exposure. Results indicate that the exposure of CHTDEs demonstrates a significant increasing trend of 0.89 × 10 3 d·km 2 per decade ( p < 0.05), with the high-risk areas largely coinciding with the core maize-producing regions. SOC content is lower in areas with high or increasing exposure, with the most pronounced relative reduction degree in the surface layer (0–5 cm): with a difference of 18.8 g/kg compared to areas with low exposure, and 9.3 g/kg compared to areas with decreasing trends. The reduction in SOC can potentially increase atmospheric CO 2 releases and lead to soil nutrient degradation. As the exposure risk expands in the future, by the carbon peaking stage, maize cropland effect on exposure is comparable to climatic effect. By the carbon neutrality stage, the climatic effect dominates, with contribution rates (73.6%, 62.0%, 52.0%, and 69.1%) far exceeding those of maize cropland effect (19.0%, 22.7%, 27.5%, and 17.0%) under the four scenarios. These findings provide a scientific basis for ensuring food security and achieving the dual carbon goals.