Key result
A novel clinical prediction model using routine health checkup data accurately predicted the 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Japanese adults, with a c-index of 0.882 in external validation.
Why the study?
Several prediction models and scoring systems for type 2 diabetes have been reported in Japan, but none have high utility.
Cohort (n=85,009)
Yes
Effect estimate: c-index 0.882 in external validation
A novel, noninvasive clinical prediction model using routine health checkup data accurately identifies Japanese individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes over 10 years.
May aid risk stratification from routine data in Japanese adults; leaves open prospective validation before clinical use.
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Munekawa et al. (2025) conducted a cohort in Type 2 diabetes (n=85,009). Clinical prediction model for 10-year risk of developing diabetes was evaluated on 10-year risk of developing diabetes (c-index) (c-index 0.882 in external validation). A novel clinical prediction model using routine health checkup data accurately predicted the 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Japanese adults, with a c-index of 0.882 in external validation.
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