Trajectories of Blood Pressure Control a Year After Randomization and Incident Cardiovascular Outcomes in SPRINT

BACKGROUND: While studies have assessed the association between blood pressure trajectories and cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes using observational data, few have assessed these associations using clinical trial data. We sought to identify systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories and to determine if these trajectory patterns carry inherent CVD risk, irrespective of baseline blood pressure. METHODS: SBP trajectories were identified using latent class group-based modeling among a cohort of Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) participants by incorporating SBP measures during the first 12 months of the trial postrandomization. Cox models were used to evaluate the association between SBP trajectory with CVD and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Four distinct SBP trajectories were identified: "low decline" (41%), "high decline" (6%), "low stable" (48%), and "high stable" (5%). Relative to the "low decline" group, the "low stable" group was associated with a 29% increased risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.57) and the "high stable" group was associated with a 76% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.15-2.68). Relative to the "low stable" group, the "high stable" group was associated with a 54% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.05-2.28). CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that SBP trajectory patterns are associated with important cardiovascular outcomes, irrespective of baseline blood pressure, which may help better identify individuals at risk and assist with accurate adjudication of antihypertensive therapy to reduce future events.