Association between the Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory and Risk of Stroke in a Health-Management Population in Jiaozuo, China

The trajectories of systolic blood pressure (SBP) in a screening population in Jiaozuo were examined, and the association between the different types of SBP trajectories and the risk of stroke was evaluated. Data of a fixed cohort population from the Jiaozuo Stroke Prevention and Control Project Management Special Database System that underwent community screening in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021 were collected. Ultimately, a total of 1,451 participants who met the inclusion criteria for this study were included in the analysis, which was performed using group trajectory modeling. The baseline SBP for each trajectory subgroup was characterized at follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis for each trajectory group was also performed, and the relationship between the SBP trajectory and risk of stroke onset during follow-up was validated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Based on the SBP from 2015 to 2021, this cohort population was divided into three groups based on the trajectory development patterns: the low-stable group (37.6%), the moderate-increasing group (53.4%), and the high-acutely increasing group (9%). Gender, age, body mass index, diastolic blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose level were predictive factors for the SBP trajectory group. The cumulative survival risk in the high-acutely increasing group was higher than that of the other two groups. After adjusting for potential confounding factors and using the low-stable group as a reference, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for the risk of stroke onset in the moderate-increasing and high-acutely increasing groups were 1.38 (0.91-2.07) and 1.51 (0.82-2.76), respectively. The results of the analysis demonstrate that higher blood pressure trajectories are associated with a higher risk of stroke and that the risk of stroke can be reduced by better control and management of the SBP.