Blood Pressure Trajectory and Its Influencing Factors in Chinese Adults: A Cohort Study with Long-Term Follow-Up

BACKGROUND Few studies have been reported on the factors affecting the trajectory of blood pressure in Chinese adults. This study aimed to identify the pattern of blood pressure trajectories and analyze the factors affecting different trajectories. MATERIAL AND METHODS A total of 749 participants were included in this study from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) database, collected between 1989 and 2006, and were followed up until 2015. A group-based trajectory model was used to identify similar development trajectories of blood pressure levels. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore the influencing factors of blood pressure trajectories. RESULTS Three systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) trajectory groups were identified: Group 1, "low initial blood pressure and slight rise" (SBP, n=267, 35.65%); Group 2, "low initial blood pressure and moderate rise" (SBP, n=375, 50.07%); and Group 3, "high initial blood pressure and high rise" (SBP, n=107, 14.29%). In the SBP trajectory groups, age ³40 years, male sex, body mass index (BMI) ≥24 kg/m², and the eastern region of China were associated with a rapid rise and high baseline blood pressure (P<0.01). In terms of DBP trajectory, male sex, BMI ≥24 kg/m², and the eastern region of China were also related to the rapid rise and high baseline blood pressure, while age may not affect rise rate (P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS Different blood pressure trajectories and related influencing factors may provide information for targeted interventions, especially for people with high initial blood pressure and high rise.