Southeastern European Agrofood Trade Specialization

This article evaluates the agrofood trade specialization patterns of Southeastern European (SEE-6) countries with the European Union (EU-15) in the period 1995-2007. Agrofood trade specialization stability and duration are investigated by main agrofood products groups according to the degree of product processing and the dynamics in demand growth by EU-15 markets. Excepting Serbia and Montenegro, and to a lesser extent the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the SEE experienced an increasing trade deficit in agrofood products with the EU-15. SEE-6 agrofood exports to the EU-15 markets are highly concentrated in bulk raw commodities with a lack of export specialization for higher-valued processed consumer-ready food. The most recent SEE agrofood export deconcentration is due to new emerging competitive niche products as a result of the SEE agrofood sector restructuring. Except in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, SEE agrofood export specialization is toward the most dynamic demand growth products by the EU-15 markets. Regression and survival analyses confirm that EU integration increases stability and duration of agrofood trade specialization on the EU-15 markets.