Driving Engagement: Issue Salience in Brazil’s Climate, Forest, and Biodiversity Diplomacy

From a democratic perspective, the size and composition of national delegations to multilateral negotiations should reflect the salience of the issues being addressed within the domestic agenda. This study examines whether variations in issue salience are reflected in participation patterns across negotiation arenas, using Brazil—a key actor in climate, biodiversity, and forest governance—as a case study. Employing a mixed-methods design, we combine Google Trends data (2004–2024), official records on delegation size and composition, and expert interviews. Findings show that Brazil consistently sends large and diverse delegations, including high-level political actors, to UNFCCC COPs despite relatively low issue salience over time. In contrast, forest and biodiversity negotiations attract smaller, more bureaucratically oriented delegations, although these issues remain consistently salient. These results suggest that issue salience alone does not determine participation patterns; rather, participation is mediated by the institutional characteristics and visibility of specific governance arenas.