Taught by the West, Armed for the Future? Study Abroad and WMD Proliferation

What personal characteristics lead political leaders to pursue weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)? This study develops a theory that leaders’ Western educational experiences shape their beliefs and values toward WMD development through socialization and instrumental learning. We distinguish between nuclear weapons and chemical and biological weapons (CBWs), proposing that studying in Western nuclear powers increases the likelihood of nuclear pursuit while discouraging CBW development. We test these hypotheses using an original dataset of leaders’ educational backgrounds (1945–2000) and find robust evidence consistent with our theory. Western education overall discourages WMD pursuit, but studying in nuclear-armed Western states has opposing effects depending on the weapon type. These findings advance research on WMD proliferation by introducing a personal biography approach and challenge the conventional view that treats nuclear and CBW proliferation as analogous. Our results also raise policy implications for educational exchange and leader assessment in nonproliferation strategy.