Meat demand in China: a dynamic AIDS approach

This article examines meat consumption behaviour across four meat categories (pork, beef, poultry and lamb) in urban and rural China through a dynamic demand system that accounts for habit formation and pre-committed effects. Based on provincial‑level data spanning the period 2015 to 2022, estimation results show that all categories are habitual, with beef being the most habitual and rural consumers displaying stronger habit formation. A higher level of pre-committed consumption is observed for pork relative to other categories, indicating that pork retains its position as a dietary staple among Chinese consumers, while pre-committed consumption for poultry is negative, reflecting its flexible and price-responsive role in household meat budgets. Demographic variables, including population growth and family size, are shown to significantly shape meat demand in urban areas, while ageing plays an important role in all four meat categories among rural consumers. Long-term elasticity prediction suggests that beef and poultry are likely to take a larger portion of future meat expenditure. Our findings provide empirical support for policymakers and industry stakeholders regarding future meat consumption, showing poultry can serve as a cost-effective substitute for pork and other red meats, while emphasizing the need to improve the supply chain resilience of beef production in China.