Synergistic consumption of renewable electricity across provinces in China based on green energy futures trading

The significant disparities in renewable energy endowments and electricity demand among Chinese provinces have hindered the effective implementation of China’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). Therefore, this paper proposes a synergistic renewable electricity consumption model based on consumption above quota certificate (CAQC) futures trading, which comprises four components: (1) An optimal green electricity consumption model is developed to determine each province’s optimal green electricity consumption amount. (2) CAQC futures are then introduced to construct a model for minimizing RPS compliance costs under a non-cooperative mode (baseline scenario), incorporating the optimal green electricity consumption results. The model determines each province’s consumption strategy (the optimal green electricity generation, trading amount, and futures trading amount). (3) Provinces acting as buyers or sellers are identified based on the optimal futures trading amount, and corresponding market types are categorized. A synergistic consumption model based on futures trading under a cooperative mode is then constructed according to different market types. The model determines each cooperative province’s optimal consumption strategy. (4) An improved Shapley value method that incorporates cooperation risks is applied to allocate cooperation benefits. This paper selected five Chinese provinces (Shandong, Shanxi, Tianjin, Gansu, and Hubei) for an empirical analysis and conducted a sensitivity analysis on the price of the futures. Results show that, compared to the non-cooperative mode, the cooperative mode reduced RPS target-realization costs by 3.84 × 109 CNY (5.3%) and increased non-hydro renewable energy generation by 17.4 × 109 kWh (8.4%). The model was also robust against changes in futures prices.