Agro-climatic variability and smallholder perceptions: assessing climate change awareness and adaptation barriers in the Northwestern Ethiopian Highlands

In the Northwestern Ethiopian Highlands, a globally relevant model for structural crop deficits in high-relief, rain-fed agro environments, this study examine the alignment between objective climatic changes and smallholder cognitive perceptions. We assessed historical rainfall trends in addition to current production limitations and adaptation hurdles by combining multi-decadal meteorological records with current smallholder surveys ( N = 150). Due to a notable Belg-season desiccation trend, meteorological records show sub-seasonal anomalies, severe ENSO droughts, and unpredictable precipitation concentrations (annual PCI > 29%). Simultaneously, high disease pressures (36.7%), technological gaps (28.0%), and misaligned conventional sowing cycles amid shifting wetness are the main causes of decreased yields, according to 55.3% of smallholders polled. Long-term physical datasets and current farmer observations are presented in this article as parallel, crossing lines of evidence rather than as a direct causal validation of modern human memory. Their conclusion shows that whereas annual precipitation averages at the macro level are statistically stable, farm-level adaptation decisions are seriously disrupted by increasing intra-seasonal volatility and seasonal polarization. In the end, our dual-lens method provides a solid empirical basis for developing focused climate-smart agricultural advising systems in climate-vulnerable highland ecosystems by exposing significant cognitive and socioeconomic impediments to local climate adaptation.