Farmers’ perceptions on climate change, variability and adaptation strategies in wheat-based farming systems of Northwest Ethiopia

Bread wheat production in high-altitude East African agro-ecosystems is confronted by both chronic institutional barriers and significant climatic warming. The adoption of climate-smart agriculture, farmer risk perceptions, and microclimatic dynamics in Northwest Ethiopia are all examined in this study. Mean yearly temperature rises of +1.19 °C in Debark and +1.61 °C in Dabat are revealed by long-term meteorological data (1981–2018). Smallholders perceive acute heat stress (33.0%) and soil deterioration (20.5%) as the main determinants of production, despite favorable historical rainfall trends. Adaptive behavior has a clear structural split according to a gender-disaggregated Multivariate Probit model. Capital-intensive inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers (β = +0.126, p < 0.05) and stress-tolerant seeds (β = +0.142, p < 0.05), are preferred by families headed by men. On the other hand, low-input intercropping is preferred by households headed by women due to severe labor and credit constraints (32.0% adoption rate (β = -0.108, p < 0.05). Severe gaps in climatic information (82.5%) and lack of access to extensions (63.0%) continue to limit adaptive agency. Advisory frameworks that are geographically focused, gender-responsive, and digitally connected are necessary to build smallholder resilience.