Butler and Military Intelligence: Analysis, Assessment and Uncertainty

The processes of intelligence analysis and assessment were frequently referred to in the Butler Report and its recommendations. Within civilian intelligence agencies across the United Kingdom there is no single, agreed definition of either analysis or assessment. By contrast, military intelligence doctrine emphasizes a greater distinction: analysis is considered to be the process of understanding the current situation; while assessment is chiefly concerned with the prediction of future enemy courses of action. This paper examines the reasons for these differences between the civilian intelligence community and military intelligence, to consider the question of how predictive should such intelligence assessment be? The post-Butler employment of methodologies in intelligence reporting common to both civilian and military intelligence agencies, such as the use of probability yardsticks, is reviewed. The use of such common methodologies suggests a possible convergence between the military and civilian approaches to intelligence within the UK intelligence community.