Implementing Probabilistic Risk Assessment in USEPA Superfund Program

Application of probabilistic risk analysis to human health and ecological risk assessment is a young science. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), as exemplified by Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA), is more suitable to quantify the confidence or level of uncertainty in risk estimates compared with the traditional point estimate approach. Within the United States Environmental protection Agency (USEPA) the Office of Emergency and Remedial Response (OERR) is implementing PRA as part of the Superfund administrative reform activities. The OERR is completing a guidance document accompanied by a workbook. OERR is continuing its outreach effort to present PRA to the public and USEPA staff, and is organizing a training course. This paper presents an overview of the OERR's PRA implementation effort to date.