What question did this study set out to answer?

To project the future burden and trajectory of male mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050 using historical exposure patterns.

January 25, 2005British Journal of CancerOpen Access

The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050

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To project the future burden and trajectory of male mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050 using historical exposure patterns.
Extracted all male death records between 1968 and 2001 that mentioned mesothelioma on the death certificate from the British mesothelioma register.
Used Poisson regression analysis to model male deaths as a function of the rise and fall of asbestos exposure throughout the 20th century to forecast deaths through 2050.
Annual mesothelioma deaths increased from 153 in 1968 to 1,848 in 2001.
Preferred statistical models project annual male mesothelioma deaths to peak between 1,950 and 2,450 deaths per year between 2011 and 2015, followed by a rapid decline.
An estimated cumulative total of approximately 90,000 mesothelioma deaths will occur between 1968 and 2050, with about 65,000 occurring after 2001.

Authors

JHJ T HodgsonUniversity of Manchester DMDamien McElvennyManchester Academic Health Science Centre ADAndrew DarntonHealth and Safety Executive

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Implication

Predictive modeling study finds male mesothelioma deaths peaking between 2011 and 2015 in Great Britain, highlighting the long-term impact of historical asbestos exposure.

Cite This Study

Hodgson et al. (2005) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7de0ef3fa445558d7d8b64 https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjc.6602307

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Implication

Predictive modeling study finds male mesothelioma deaths peaking between 2011 and 2015 in Great Britain, highlighting the long-term impact of historical asbestos exposure.

The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050

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Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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