Spatial association networks and evolution of synergy between digital financial inclusion and urban–rural integration in China

Against the backdrop of urban–rural integration (URI) and regional coordination becoming national strategic priorities in China, this study examined the spatial structure and dynamic evolution of the synergy between digital financial inclusion (DFI) and URI. Panel data for 31 provincial-level regions from 2011 to 2023 were used. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) was calculated, and an interprovincial spatial association network was constructed. A temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) was then employed to examine endogenous structural effects, node-attribute effects, spatial proximity, and temporal dependence associated with network evolution. The results indicated that: (1) the CCD increased steadily. Improvements were greater in the eastern region, while the central and western regions showed accelerated catch-up. Pilot policies were associated with a possible demonstration effect. (2) During 2011–2023, the network evolved from an “east-strong/west-weak” pattern toward a “multi-core, multi-corridor, wide-coverage” configuration. Interprovincial linkages became denser, and eastern provinces strengthened their leading role. Meanwhile, central and western provinces rose in network position, resulting in an “east-led—central-bridging—west-supporting” structure. Network efficiency remained relatively high, but regional balance remained limited. (3) Bloc modeling classified the network into four blocs: net spillover, bidirectional spillover, net beneficiary, and broker. Cross-bloc linkages dominated, and the regions displayed clear functional differentiation. (4) Additional TERGM results suggested that network evolution was jointly associated with spatial proximity, interregional heterogeneity in node attributes, and temporal dependence (tie persistence). The main contribution of this study lies in characterizing the structural and relational dynamics associated with the evolution of DFI–URI synergy across provinces. This study provides quantitative evidence and policy implications for strengthening interprovincial collaboration and promoting sustainable and coordinated development through improved DFI–URI coordination.