Prognostic model of the adaptive changes from hypertensive cardiopathy: from mild diastolic dysfunction to depressed systolic function

INTRODUCTION: By definition, hypertensive cardiopathy is a series of complex and variable effects responsible for the chronic elevation of blood pressure in the heart. It stands out within a broad spectrum of cardiovascular diseases associated with hypertension. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the capacity to predict the development of adaptive changes to hypertensive cardiopathy within ten years following diagnosis of the condition, using a model based on prognostic factors. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted in hypertensive patients. The patients were followed at the specialized hypertension physicians office of the specialty policlinic attached to Carlos Manuel de Céspedes University Hospital, in the Bayamo Municipality, Granma Province, Cuba, from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2018. RESULTS: Coxs proportional regression model showed a significant statistical relationship between most of the factors and the development of the adaptive changes in hypertensive cardiopathy within ten years of follow-up after the diagnosis of this condition. The lack of blood pressure control (Hazard ratio: 2.090; confidence interval 95%: 1.688 to 2.588; p: 0.000) followed by stage 2 of hypertension (hazard ratio: 1.987; confidence interval 95%: 1.584 to 2.491; p: 0.000) were the main factors. Internal validation of the model, discriminant capacity (C- statistic: 0.897) and calibration Hosmer-Lemeshow (χ2: 5.384; p: 0.716), was acceptable. CONCLUSIONS: We develop a model to predict the progression of hypertensive cardiopathy from grade I to grade IV with adequate discriminatory capacity. The model is based on prognostic factors, among which characteristic effects of arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease stood out.