What question did this study set out to answer?

To estimate the total number of adult elective operations cancelled or postponed worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

May 12, 2020British journal of surgeryOpen Access

Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans

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Overview

Predictive modeling study reveals over 28 million elective operations cancelled during peak pandemic disruption, indicating extensive backlogs requiring long-term recovery plans.

Key Points

To estimate the total number of adult elective operations cancelled or postponed worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Conducted a global expert response study to project 12-week peak cancellation proportions.
Used a Bayesian β-regression model to estimate 12-week elective surgery cancellation rates across 190 countries.
Stratified elective surgical case mix by specialty and indication (cancer versus benign conditions) and applied these figures to country-level annual surgical volumes.
An estimated 28,404,603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during 12 peak weeks (72.3% cancellation rate overall; 2,367,050 operations per week).
Cancellations would affect 81.7% of operations for benign conditions (25,638,922 of 31,378,062), 37.7% of cancer surgeries (2,324,070 of 6,162,311), and 25.4% of elective caesarean sections (441,611 of 1,735,483).
If health systems increase baseline surgical capacity by 20% following the pandemic, clearing the resulting operative backlog would require a median of 45 weeks.

Cite This Study

A 2020 study studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7f7f76a7259c59cfca7cf4 https://doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746

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May 12, 2020British journal of surgeryOpen Access

Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Predictive modeling study reveals over 28 million elective operations cancelled during peak pandemic disruption, indicating extensive backlogs requiring long-term recovery plans.

Key Points

To estimate the total number of adult elective operations cancelled or postponed worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Conducted a global expert response study to project 12-week peak cancellation proportions.
Used a Bayesian β-regression model to estimate 12-week elective surgery cancellation rates across 190 countries.
Stratified elective surgical case mix by specialty and indication (cancer versus benign conditions) and applied these figures to country-level annual surgical volumes.
An estimated 28,404,603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during 12 peak weeks (72.3% cancellation rate overall; 2,367,050 operations per week).
Cancellations would affect 81.7% of operations for benign conditions (25,638,922 of 31,378,062), 37.7% of cancer surgeries (2,324,070 of 6,162,311), and 25.4% of elective caesarean sections (441,611 of 1,735,483).
If health systems increase baseline surgical capacity by 20% following the pandemic, clearing the resulting operative backlog would require a median of 45 weeks.

Cite This Study

A 2020 study studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7f7f76a7259c59cfca7cf4 https://doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746

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