Projections and Trends in RN Supply: What Do They Tell Us About the Nursing Shortage?

This article presents an analysis of trends in the supply of RNs. When weighted for population growth, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' 2002 projection of future RN shortages indicates a more imminent and stronger decline in RN supply than initially presented. Analysis of national RN survey data from 1977 to 2000 finds recent decreased gains and increased losses from the RN license pool, a decline in RNs working or looking for work in nursing, and RN supply shifts away from bedside nursing. Policy implications to address these trends include regulatory/legislative and incentive approaches aimed at improving education and employment.