University dropout intentions and early prevention

Despite the extensive literature addressing university dropout, the prior intention to withdraw from university has been less comprehensively examined by higher education research. While the influence of transition management, resilience, and social networks on university dropout has been explored separately, a combined analysis from a panel perspective is also rare. The paper examines how transitional experiences, resilience, and social networks within the university environment influence the dropout intentions of Bachelor's students, with particular attention to the characteristics of non-traditional students (NTS). The panel analysis is based on a two-year survey (2022–23) of 1,000 Bachelor’s students in economics and social sciences at a public university. The Panel analysis showed that transitional experiences, resilience, and social networks significantly influenced students’ dropout intentions, with better study preparation and stronger peer connections reducing dropout risk. Initial stress, employment or caregiving responsibilities, disability, and female gender were associated with higher dropout intentions. While these findings largely align with existing research on dropout in higher education, they emphasize the importance of early study preparation alongside institutional support for managing transitions, fostering students’ resilience, and strengthening social networks among students. Furthermore, providing appropriate part-time study options and addressing gender- and disability-based needs are of significant relevance.