Prognostic Value of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Predicting Death Risk in Patients with Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease

INTRODUCTION: Severe hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) may lead to serious complications, which cause child mortality during outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine whether neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) can predict death risk in severe HFMD. METHODS: Medical records for 664 severe HFMD patients were retrospectively examined, and NLR was calculated from blood counts. Youden's index was calculated to determine the optimal NLR cutoff. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine death risk factors associated with severe HFMD. RESULTS: An NLR cutoff value of 2.01 and 2.50 respectively predicted mortality among all 664 severe HFMD and 137 critical HFMD. Among all 664 patients, the multivariate model identified the following as independently associated with death risk: high fever (OR 3.342, 95% CI 1.736-6.432), EV71 infection (OR 3.200, 95% CI 1.529-6.698), fasting glucose (OR 37.343, 95% CI 18.616-74.909), and NLR (>2.01) (OR 2.142, 95% CI 1.125-4.079). Among 137 critical HFMD, EV71 infection (OR 3.441, 95% CI 1.132-10.462), fasting glucose (OR 14.173, 95% CI 4.920-40.827), and NLR (>2.50) (OR 4.166, 95% CI 1.570-11.051) were associated with death risk. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, NLR (>2.01) in severe HFMD and NLR (>2.50) in critical HFMD patients may be associated with increased death risk.