The proposed formula allows for real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number for Hand-Foot-Mouth disease without needing individual transmission efficiency estimates.
Offers a simplified tool for real-time outbreak tracking; leaves open whether this mathematical model improves clinical.
Firstly, an SEIR mathematical model with standard incidence rate is established to describe the transmission of Hand-Foot-Mouth disease (HFMD). The equilibrium of the nondimensionalized model is calculated and the basic reproduction number of the model is defined. In addition, the local stability of the equilibrium is analyzed via the characteristic roots of the Jacobian matrix at the equilibrium, respectively. Numerical simulations are given to confirm the theoretical results. Secondly, a formula aimed to estimate the basic reproduction number of the transmission of HFMD is deduced. As examples to make use of the formula, the basic reproduction number of the HFMD transmission of Singapore of years 2015 and 2016 is estimated based on the newly infected cases notified by the surveillance organizations, respectively. The formula can realize real time estimation for the basic reproduction number and does not need to estimate the transmission efficiency of HFMD between individuals.
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Chunqing Wu (2017) studied this question.
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