What question did this study set out to answer?

To model historical trends and forecast the numbers of general practitioner teams, pediatric teams, paramedic teams, and ambulance stations through 2030.

August 16, 2026HealthcareOpen Access

Modeling and Forecasting the Operation of the Emergency Medical Care System in the Republic of Kazakhstan

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Authors

GBGulnara BatenovaSemey Medical University DYDiana YgiyevaSemey Medical University ZUZhanar UrazalinaSemey Medical University

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Implication

Retrospective time-series study projects a decline in physician ambulance teams alongside paramedic growth, highlighting shifting prehospital emergency care capacity.

Key Points

To model historical trends and forecast the numbers of general practitioner teams, pediatric teams, paramedic teams, and ambulance stations through 2030.
Retrospective longitudinal ecological time-series study evaluating emergency medical service staffing and structural data from 2000 to 2023 across 16 administrative regions.
Data were gathered from regional emergency medical stations and the national statistical digest on population health and healthcare organization activities.
Ambulance stations showed an average annual decrease of 4.19% (95% CI: −5.00% to −3.37%).
Physician-led emergency teams decreased by an average of 7.94% annually (95% CI: −10.14% to 5.69%) and pediatric teams decreased by 7.73% annually (95% CI: −10.36% to 5.02%).
Paramedic teams grew at an average annual rate of 1.62% (95% CI: 0.19% to 3.46%), with predictive models indicating continuing declines for physician-led teams and stable trends for paramedic teams through 2030.

Cite This Study

Batenova et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a817a01f2fb91fc834ad883 https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare14162540

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Implication

Retrospective time-series study projects a decline in physician ambulance teams alongside paramedic growth, highlighting shifting prehospital emergency care capacity.

Modeling and Forecasting the Operation of the Emergency Medical Care System in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Modeling and Forecasting the Operation of the Emergency Medical Care System in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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