Linking the Levels: The Long Wave and Shifts in U.S. Foreign Policy, 1790- 1993

The end of the Cold War has rekindled the oldest debate in American foreign policy: the choice of intervention or isolation. Noting regular swings between Introversion and Extroversion in the orientation of U.S. policy, we offer an approach that links the systemic and domestic levels of analysis to understand this phenomenon. Specifically, the Long Wave in the global economy is linked to factors in a number of second image theories that have been used to explain the foreign policies and behavior of nations. We focus on three possibilities: that hard times impel leaders to seek foreign adventures (the diversionary hypothesis); that abundant finances and military build-ups result in armed entanglements (the war chest hypothesis); and that economic growth generates a societal need for foreign expansion (the lateral pressure hypothesis). Despite apparent contradictions between predictions made by these three perspectives, some empirical support is found for all three. The key to resolving these contradictions lies in domestic-systemic linkages and in timing. The linked, two-level approach presented here does not merely call into question the autonomy of state actors, it specifies particular relationships and dynamics that shape national interests and capabilities in identifiable ways and at explicit times.