Does transactionalism possess smartness? Reconstructing Türkiye’s approach towards the EU from 2017 to 2025

In the international arena, middle powers are gradually carving out personal influential spaces through smart strategies. This paper explores the behavioural transformation of the Turkish Foreign Policy (TFP), attempting to comprehend if transactionalism can be considered as a smart strategy. Characterised by a scepticism for long-term agreements and multilateralism, preference for bilateralism and short-term gains, the paper examines Türkiye’s approach towards the European Union (EU) in three different critical junctures: (I) 2017–2019, a period of open assertiveness where the Turkish security policies backfired at the country’s image as a middle power; (II) 2020–2022, a phase where Ankara re-adapted to overambitious aspirations; and (III) 2023–2025, when the Turkish elites recognised the overambitious approach and diluted its assertiveness towards the EU as a middle power. Through a process tracing model, the article demonstrates that Türkiye’s transactionalism resembles characteristics of a semi-smart strategy as it is flawed by an open inconsistency.