Unidirectional and asymmetric spillovers of oil price shocks to domestic food prices in fragile economies

Existing literature on energy–food price linkages primarily focuses on international markets, often reporting bidirectional integration. However, empirical evidence for domestic markets in fragile economies remains scarce. This study fills this gap by examining dynamic transmission between domestic oil and food prices in ten fragile nations using Wavelet Coherence, DCC-GARCH, TVP-VAR, and Quantile-on-Quantile connectedness. Testing five hypotheses, our results diverge sharply from global market patterns. First (H1), we find predominantly unidirectional transmission from oil to food prices with negligible feedback. Second (H2), spillovers are asymmetric and nonlinear, intensifying during extreme oil price shocks. Third (H3), we identify significant cross-country heterogeneity in linkage strength and temporal structure. Fourth (H4), transmission patterns are time-varying, shifting markedly during crises such as COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Finally (H5), we establish four distinct typologies: chronically high-coupling, structurally low-coupling, shock-sensitive, and irregular. These findings reveal that fragile economies operate under unique price-formation mechanisms, necessitating policy frameworks tailored to vulnerable domestic contexts rather than relying on global market generalizations.