Automation and decarbonization: the role of industrial robots in China

Industrial robot adoption’s environmental impact is time-dependent and spatially heterogeneous. Using data from 281 Chinese cities between 2008 and 2023 with STIRPAT models, we find robots significantly reduce total carbon emissions short-to-medium term but become insignificant long-term, while carbon intensity consistently decreases across all horizons. This divergence stems from a rebound effect: efficiency gains are offset by enterprise scale expansion. Mechanism analysis reveals robots promote green innovation and energy structure upgrading. Spatial Durbin models uncover asymmetries: robots reduce total emissions more in neighboring regions than locally due to a siphoning effect whereby advanced automation areas attract high-carbon production from surroundings. In contrast, carbon intensity reductions are stronger locally. Cities in China’s new energy demonstration program maintain long-term emission reductions, suggesting clean energy infrastructure mitigates rebound effects. Findings inform policies accounting for temporal dynamics and spatial spillovers.