Strategic Considerations in the Richardson Model of Arms Races

Parameters defining Richardson-type reaction functions for missile stocks are derived, for both deterrers and attackers, as explicit functions of certain underlying technical and timing factors in a simulated missile war. With two deterrers there generally exists a stable equilibrium of mutual assured destruction, where the equilibrium missile stocks depend on technical and timing factors; with two attackers an unstable equilibrium generally exists; and with a deterrer and an attacker no equilibrium exists. Above the stable equilibrium there exists a cone of mutual deterrence, while below it there exist regions of war initiation. Arms control and disarmament measures are treated using this framework.