RAAS Blockade and COVID‐19: Mechanistic Modeling of Mas and AT1 Receptor Occupancy as Indicators of Pro‐Inflammatory and Anti‐Inflammatory Balance

ACE inhibitors (ACEis) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) are standard-of-care treatments for hypertension and diabetes, common comorbidities among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Their use in the setting of COVID-19 has been heavily debated due to potential interactions with ACE2, an enzyme that links the pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory arms of the renin angiotensin system, but also the entryway by which severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) invades cells. ACE2 expression is altered by age, hypertension, diabetes, and the virus itself. This study integrated available information about the renin angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) and effects of SARS-CoV-2 and its comorbidities on ACE2 into a mechanistic mathematical model and aimed to quantitatively predict effects of ACEi/ARBs on the RAAS pro-inflammatory/anti-inflammatory balance. RAAS blockade prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection is predicted to increase the mas-AT1 receptor occupancy ratio up to 20-fold, indicating that in patients already taking an ACEi/ARB before infection, the anti-inflammatory arm is already elevated while the pro-inflammatory arm is suppressed. Predicted pro-inflammatory shifts in the mas-AT1 ratio due to ACE2 downregulation by SARS-CoV-2 were small relative to anti-inflammatory shifts induced by ACEi/ARB. Predicted effects of changes in ACE2 expression with comorbidities of diabetes, hypertension, or aging on mas-AT1 occupancy ratio were also relatively small. Last, predicted changes in the angiotensin (Ang(1-7)) production rate with ACEi/ARB therapy, comorbidities, or infection were all small relative to exogenous Ang(1-7) infusion rates shown experimentally to protect against acute lung injury, suggesting that any changes in the ACE2-Ang(1-7)-mas arm may not be large enough to play a major role in COVID-19 pathophysiology.