Key result
The PRAIS2 risk model demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC 0.87) and good calibration for predicting 30-day mortality in pediatric patients undergoing cardiac surgery.
Why the study?
Risk stratification in paediatric patients undergoing heart surgery remains a challenge, and the generalisability and clinical utility of the newly developed PRAIS2 risk model required independent temporal external validation.
Does the PRAIS2 risk model accurately predict 30-day mortality in pediatric patients undergoing cardiac surgery?
Population
1330 and 1187 paediatric cardiac surgical procedures in Bristol, UK
Comparison
PRAIS2 score predicted mortality vs observed 30-day mortality
Design
Single-centre temporal external validation study
Follow-up
30 days
Authors
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May support preoperative counseling in pediatric cardiac surgery; leaves open prospective validation before routine adoption.
Observational (n=2,027)
No
Does the PRAIS2 risk model accurately predict 30-day mortality in pediatric patients undergoing cardiac surgery?
Effect estimate: AUC 0.87 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.93)
The PRAIS2 risk model demonstrates excellent discrimination and good calibration for predicting 30-day mortality in pediatric cardiac surgery, supporting its wider clinical adoption.
Cocomello et al. (2020) conducted an observational in Congenital heart disease (n=2,027). PRAIS2 risk model was evaluated on 30-day mortality discrimination (AUC) in the 2015-2019 validation cohort (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.93). The PRAIS2 risk model demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC 0.87) and good calibration for predicting 30-day mortality in pediatric patients undergoing cardiac surgery.
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