“Life means life,” but does it mean less crime? Perpetual confinement and violent crime in Pennsylvania

In 1994, Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Tom Ridge ran on a promise to ensure ‘life means life.’ Upon taking office, he called for a special legislative session to accomplish just that, which resulted in a constitutional amendment making release nearly impossible for those sentenced to life. The expressed goal of this effort was to reduce crime. In this paper, we use interrupted-time series analyses on all four violent Part I offenses to see if this goal was met. The results of those analyses were mixed with no statistically significant change observed in the homicide rate, the three-year moving average of the homicide rate, or the rape rate; yet there were declines in both aggravated assault and robbery. Those declines, however, started at different times, suggesting that some other factor might explain them better. Our interpretation of these findings and their implications for both theory and policy are then discussed.