The Nile River Problematique

Globally and regionally a realization is setting in that the constraint of freshwater resources availability and their sharing could be a major impediment to security and subsequently to sustainable development of developing countries. This aspect of sustainability referred to as the “Problematique” requires a long-term perspective and explicit recognition of a plethora of dimensions of development that need to be considered independently and simultaneously. In this paper, we discuss the Nile River Problematique as a hypothetical situation, using a methodology to study the policy formulation between the years 2000 and 2050 for development of Egypt and the upstream country of Ethiopia as constrained by the growing population, increased global pressure for economic development, and the shared, annually finite water resource—the Nile. First, policy objectives are formulated. Central to our approach is the use of a decision (goal) seeking paradigm for the human dimension of global change referred to as the cybernetic paradigm. This requires the use of multilevel architecture of models to deal with complexity and the human/machine interactive process to deal with uncertainty. A computer-based reasoning support system is used. Different policy targets are examined. The approach yields not only which combination of policy options will work, but the level and extent the policies must be applied. How such policy measures are to be enforced is not discussed. Policy implications are presented quantitatively using a “foresight” or scenario approach. The formulated policies here are not prescriptive; however practitioners have tested the methodology in a workshop.