Environmental Security in the Arctic

Can the rapid changes associated with warmer Arctic give rise to international conflicts and undermine the environmental security the region? What division labour between Arctic institutions and broader regimes can provide governance regional economic activities that is effective as weU as legitimate? In this article, I argue that the conditions are favourable for adaptive and peaceful management the Arctic: dynamic governance framework is already in place and interstate jurisdictional rivalry is modest. Globally applicable regimes luce those based on the law the sea convention offer most the support for Arctic environmental security but regional institutions too can play important roles in strengthening substantive regulations and enhancing their implementation, not least by influencing other institutions.My argument, that the Arctic governance framework is strong and dynamic, contrasts with recent reports about an ongoing race for natural resources1 in which the Arctic states are aUegedly engaging in unilateral grabs and approaching diplomatic gridlock.2 In the next section, 1 substantiate the political stability inherent in the firm jurisdictional bases that exist for adopting and enforcing binding regulation regional economic activities, the advanced state affairs regarding delimitation Arctic maritime zones, and the clear articulation cooperation in Arctic policy documents from major states in recent years. My view, that circumpolar institutions derive their regulatory potential primarily from their ability to affect other institutions, runs counter to recent claims by some scholars, practitioners, and civil-society organizations that new and legally binding comprehensive treaty for protecting the Arctic environment is badly needed.3 To back up my position, I show in the subsequent section why the eight member-states the Arctic Council are either too few or too many for dealing effectively with the management challenges associated with greater commercial interest in the Arctic. The final section summarizes the argument and draws some political implications for Arctic governance, including the highly topical issue non- Arctic state involvement in work under the council.ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY IN A CHANGING ARCTICThe alarmist propositions that melting polar ice will rapidly make hitherto inaccessible natural resources and trading rules economically viable, in turn triggering latent jurisdictional issues and politically explosive situations, do not stand up to closer scrutiny. A warmer Arctic is equally likely to entail rougher weather conditions, greater density moving ice, and thawing permafrost - all rendering Arctic operations more difficult and costly. Any increases in the commercial use Arctic resources and sea routes will therefore occur gradually. The allocation among states competence to regulate those activities is clear-cut and firmly based in international law, with unsettled boundaries managed cooperatively and the Arctic states emphasizing their commitments to legal rules that are strongly compatible with their self-interest. This section examines the economic, legal, and political factors that serve to uphold Arctic environmental security.Inherent in the concept environmental security is the understanding that threats arising from environmental degradation and resource rivalry may prove severe enough to generate violent conflict. As Deudney shows, those promoting this concept have implied the need for strong international institutions with cross-sectoral mandates and the capacity to take extraordinary measures to mitigate such risks.4 For instance, in 1988 Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze proposed a discussion on how to turn the United Nations environmental program into an environmental coundl capable taking effective decisions to ensure ecological security.5 The same underlying worry - that rapid changes are stretching existing international regimes beyond their capacity - has led some observers and practitioners in Arctic affairs to call for urgent measures, luce freeze of commercial fishing activities in the high seas the Arctic Ocean,6 moratorium on certain new oil exploration activities in deep waters,7 and as noted, the creation new and comprehensive regional agreement for environmental protection. …