The Rise of Environmental Scarcity and the Global Security Implications: The Cases of Darfur, Syria, and India–Pakistan Water Conflicts

This study explores how global governance affects environmental security in three cases where environmental scarcity interacted with weak governance to produce conflict: the Darfur water crisis, the role of drought in the Syrian civil war, and the India–Pakistan water conflict over the Indus River. Using a comparative case study approach and various primary and secondary documents, as well as process tracing within each case, the study seeks to explain why the scarcity of resources leads to conflict in some cases but is not a direct cause of conflict. Most importantly, the study shows that governance quality is far more important than environmental quality in all cases. It examines how environmental scarcity acts as a “conflict amplifier” rather than as the cause of conflict. To manage these conflicts, we need early warning systems and coordinated mediation mechanisms that are complementary at the global level. These should not duplicate existing initiatives, such as the early warning work currently being conducted by UNEP.