Carotid Artery Stiffness Accurately Predicts White Matter Hyperintensity Volume 20 Years Later: A Secondary Analysis of the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Community Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Arterial stiffness is a biomarker of cerebrovascular disease and dementia risk. Studies have shown an association between carotid artery stiffness and increased white matter hyperintensity volume and, as a result, reduced total brain volume on MR imaging, but none have had prolonged follow-up to fully evaluate the slow change seen in white matter hyperintensity volume and total brain volume with time. Our objective was to determine whether common carotid artery stiffness on sonography accurately predicts white matter hyperintensity volume and total brain volume on MR imaging more than 20 years later. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Community study to compare 5 measurements of carotid artery stiffness, including strain, distensibility, compliance, Stiffness index, and pressure-strain elastic modulus, with the white matter hyperintensity volume and total brain volume on a follow-up MR imaging using linear regression. RESULTS: We included 1402 patients enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Community study. There was a significant relationship between increasing carotid artery stiffness and both higher white matter hyperintensity volume and lower total brain volume on MR imaging, measured at a mean of 21.5 years later. In multivariable linear regression models, the carotid strain, distensibility, Stiffness index, and pressure-strain elastic modulus were associated with white matter hyperintensity volume. Only compliance was associated with total brain volume in the multivariate models. CONCLUSIONS: Sonography measurements of carotid artery stiffness are predictive of white matter hyperintensity volume and total brain volume on MR imaging more than 20 years later. The association is more robust for white matter hyperintensity volume than total brain volume. These findings support the role of arterial stiffness as a method for identifying patients at risk of developing white matter hyperintensity volume and as a potential mechanism leading to small-artery disease of the brain.