Key result
CKD is linked to ~63% higher odds of new-onset heart failure, driven by HFpEF.
Why the study?
Heart failure and chronic kidney disease frequently co-exist, but whether CKD is preferentially associated with a specific HF ejection fraction phenotype remains unclear.
Case-Control (n=103,696)
Yes
Odds Ratio: 1.63 (95% CI 1.45–1.84)
p-value: p=<0.001
Chronic kidney disease is an independent risk factor for new-onset heart failure, demonstrating a disproportionately stronger association with HFpEF compared to HFrEF or HFmrEF.
May support closer HF surveillance in CKD; hypothesis-generating for HFpEF-specific prevention pending prospective trials.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heart failure (HF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are prevalent and often co-exist. Whether CKD is preferentially associated with a specific HF ejection fraction (EF) phenotype remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between CKD and new-onset HF across the EF spectrum and according to CKD severity. METHODS: Patients with a first HF diagnosis from the Swedish HF Registry (2005-2021) were matched 1:1 by sex, year of birth, and county to controls without HF. In separate analyses, CKD was defined according to (i) ICD-10 codes in both HF patients and controls; (ii) an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min/1.73m2 in HF patients. Renal function was further stratified into the KDIGO categories G2-G5, i.e. G2:60-89;G3a:45-59; G3b:30-44; G4:15-29; G5 < 15 ml/min/1.73 m2 in eGFR-defined CKD analyses. RESULTS: 51 848 HF patients (20% HF with preserved EF [HFpEF], 23% HF with mildly reduced EF [HFmrEF], 57% HF with reduced EF [HFrEF]) and 51 848 controls were considered. CKD was associated with ∼two-fold higher odds of HF, particularly HFpEF, compared with HFmrEF and HFrEF vs non-HF (ICD-10 definition: odds ratio [OR]2.46, 1.30, and 1.52, respectively; P-interaction=0.001) and with 8% higher odds of HFpEF vs HFrEF when defined by eGFR in the HF population. Across KDIGO stages, with G2 as reference, G3b-G5 were more likely associated with HFpEF vs HFrEF, G3a had similar associations with HFpEF and HFrEF, and G3a-G3b were less likely associated with HFmrEF vs. HFrEF. CONCLUSIONS: CKD was independently associated with new-onset HF, especially HFpEF in moderate to advanced CKD, and both HFpEF and HFrEF in mild CKD. Targeting CKD may be crucial to prevent HF.
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Valente et al. (2026) conducted a case-control in New-onset Heart Failure (n=103,696). Chronic kidney disease vs. No chronic kidney disease was evaluated on New-onset heart failure (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.45-1.84, p=<0.001). Chronic kidney disease was independently associated with a 1.63-fold higher odds of new-onset heart failure, with the strongest association observed for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (OR 2.46).
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