The Future of Kirkuk

The analysis below provides an overview of the modern history of the city of Kirkuk and its surrounding area, its role in Iraqi politics, and the risk of sectarian conflict over control of the Kirkuk region breaking out. This paper also assesses the broad outlines of various strategies for mitigating sectarian conflict over Kirkuk, as suggested by a number of observers. More specifically, it is argued that Article 140 of Iraq's Constitution (which promises to hold a referendum on the status of Kirkuk no later than 31 December 2007), should be respected. Should the referendum results indicate a desire to join Kirkuk governorate to the Kurdish Autonomous Region, such inclusion should occur along with a number of federalist resource and power sharing provisions, and the city of Kirkuk itself should possibly receive a special independent administrative status.