Improving CHA₂DS₂-VASc stratification of non-fatal stroke and mortality risk using the Intermountain Mortality Risk Score among patients with atrial fibrillation

Background Oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy guidelines recommend using CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc to determine OAC need in atrial fibrillation (AF). A usable tool, CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc is challenged by its predictive ability. Applying components of the complete blood count and basic metabolic profile, the Intermountain Mortality Risk Score (IMRS) has been extensively validated. This study evaluated whether use of IMRS with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc in patients with AF improves prediction. Methods Patients with AF undergoing cardiac catheterisation (N=10 077) were followed for non-fatal stroke and mortality (mean 5.8±4.1 years, maximum 19 years). CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and IMRS were calculated at baseline. IMRS categories were defined based on previously defined criteria. Cox regression was adjusted for demographic, clinical and treatment variables not included in IMRS or CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc. Results In women (n=4122, mean age 71±12 years), the composite of non-fatal stroke/mortality was stratified (all p-trend <0.001) by CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc (1: 12.6%, 2: 22.8%, >2: 48.1%) and IMRS (low: 17.8%, moderate: 40.9%, high risk: 64.5%), as it was for men (n=5955, mean age 68±12 years) by CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc (<2: 15.7%, 2: 30.3%, >2: 51.8%) and IMRS (low: 19.0%, moderate: 42.0%, high risk: 65.9%). IMRS stratified stroke/mortality (all p-trend <0.001) in each CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc category. Conclusions Using IMRS jointly with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc in patients with AF improved the prediction of stroke and mortality. For example, in patients at the OAC treatment threshold (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc = 2), IMRS provided ≈4-fold separation between low and high risk. IMRS provides an enhancing marker for risk in patients with AF that reflects the underlying systemic nature of this disease that may be considered in combination with the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score.