Modelling Internal Migrations in Poland at the Municipality Level and Their Relationship to Unemployment (2004–2023): Results, Implications and Potential Use

The paper presents the results from a study, devoted to modelling internal migrations in Poland at the municipality level. Thus, data concerns some 2,500 units across 20 years from the first two decades of the 21st century. The basic model studied assumes the dependence of migration flows on the unemployment rate. Then, the results of this model (identified for each of 20 years, i.e. actually 20 models) are compared with several of its extensions. The main conclusion is that the basic hypothesis of migration dependence upon unemployment is strongly confirmed. What is, however, even more important, is that the analysis of model errors, both of the basic model and its extensions, provides essential and quite specific information on the spatial character of the phenomena and processes analysed. These can be directly used for further, more detailed studies, but also for development policy purposes. While the results do not categorically state that this relationship must be positive for all units considered, they provide strong evidence that this may be the case to a much greater extent than we previously thought. On the top of this, the very clear spatial pattern constitutes an important value added.