The global risks from US violation of HEU minimization: insights from norm theory

This article explores (1) how the United States has recently violated an international nuclear nonproliferation norm, which it had helped create, that aims to phase out commerce in nuclear-weapons-usable highly enriched uranium (HEU); (2) why it is doing so; and (3) what the consequences may be for the norm and for global nuclear security. The article does this through the lens of four contending norm-adoption theories: enforcement, functionality, coordination, and internalization. The article finds that the United States is violating the HEU-minimization norm for the sake of reducing costs, not because of any technical constraints. The theories predict that this will reduce broader global compliance with the norm by signaling that HEU use is ethical and provides benefits, thereby leading other countries also to violate the norm, especially as international enforcement of norms declines due to the weakening of both US hegemony and international institutions. Unless the United States reverses course, the likely outcome will be a resurgence of global HEU commerce that will increase risks of nuclear weapons spreading to states and even terrorists.