Prognostic value of acute fluid collections diagnosed by ultrasound in the early assessment of severity of acute pancreatitis

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prognostic value of acute fluid collections (AFC) diagnosed by conventional transabdominal ultrasound in the early assessment of severity acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: We studied 128 consecutive patients with AP between March 2006 and March 2011. The predictor was the number of AFC. Outcome measure was the occurrence of complications. Abdominal sonogram, contrast-enhanced CT, and pancreatitis-specific clinical and laboratory findings were performed. RESULTS: AFC were associated with complications (p < 0.0001), Balthazar grade (p = 0.004), Ranson score (p < 0.0001), and the majority of clinical, radiologic, and biochemical parameters for predicting complications of AP (p < 0.05). Univariate logistic regression also revealed significant association between the number of AFC and the occurrence of complications (OR 4.4; 95% CI 2.5-7.6). After the adjustment for covariates, AFC remained prognostic for complications and a cutoff point of >1 AFC was prognostic of their occurrence with 88% sensitivity and 82% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: AFC are related to the clinical course of AP and can predict its severity