Does Genre Matter? Heterogeneous Shocks and the Resilience of the Turkish Film Industry

This study presents the first comprehensive macroeconometric analysis of the Turkish cinema industry over a volatile two-decade period (2002–2023), characterised by the industrial maturation of New Turkish Cinema amid chronic macroeconomic instability. utilising the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach (Pesaran et al., 2001), this study identifies the structural determinants of box office revenue and quantifies sectoral resilience. The empirical results reveal a striking Human Capital Multiplier effect, with long-run elasticity standing at +6.42, while aggregate GDP growth remains statistically insignificant. This finding suggests that cinema demand in Turkey operates as a sophisticated cultural practice sustained by an educated populace, a form of Bourdieuian habitus, rather than as a mere mass-market commodity. Furthermore, the industry demonstrates remarkable industrial resilience, with an error correction term of −0.65, indicating rapid recovery from external shocks within approximately 1.5 years. Genre-specific disaggregation uncovers a unique cultural import substitution effect: while pro-cyclical genres like Comedy contract during currency shocks, counter-cyclical genres such as Drama and Animation function as economic stabilisers and crisis refuges. These findings challenge the traditional supply-side focus of cultural policy, suggesting that long-term sectoral sustainability depends more on audience-centric investments in education and media literacy than on direct production subsidies. The study concludes that the Turkish case serves as a vivid laboratory for understanding how cultural industries maintain structural integrity amid macroeconomic volatility, offering broader lessons for emerging markets facing similar challenges.