What does this research mean for the field?

Under crisis conditions, European natural gas prices are significantly driven by global LNG market dynamics, inter-regional competition, and geopolitical uncertainty, with LNG acting as the primary transmission channel for external shocks. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

Identify and statistically assess the key factors driving European TTF natural gas price dynamics during global liquefied natural gas supply disruptions and crisis shocks.

August 23, 2026Journal of Monetary Economics and Management

Current trends in the development of the global gas market in conditions of increased volatility

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Authors

MLM. LapidusPlekhanov Russian University of Economics OSO. P. SushkoPlekhanov Russian University of Economics

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Implication

Time-series regression analysis reveals significant global LNG supply and geopolitical drivers of European TTF gas prices, indicating LNG acts as a key transmission channel for external shocks.

Key Points

Identify and statistically assess the key factors driving European TTF natural gas price dynamics during global liquefied natural gas supply disruptions and crisis shocks.
Conducted a time-series multiple regression analysis to evaluate natural gas price behavior at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub.
Included explanatory variables comprising lost Qatari LNG volumes, global LNG supply, European and Chinese LNG imports, EU gas storage levels, Russian pipeline flows, and a crisis-period dummy variable.
The multiple regression model exhibited strong explanatory power for TTF price movements, supported by statistically significant coefficient of determination and F-test metrics.
European natural gas prices under crisis conditions are shaped by global LNG market dynamics, inter-regional import competition with China, and geopolitical instability rather than internal supply-demand balance alone.

Cite This Study

Lapidus et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8aada77677a34114445f3f https://doi.org/10.26118/2782-4586-2026-349-359

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Implication

Time-series regression analysis reveals significant global LNG supply and geopolitical drivers of European TTF gas prices, indicating LNG acts as a key transmission channel for external shocks.

Current trends in the development of the global gas market in conditions of increased volatility

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Current trends in the development of the global gas market in conditions of increased volatility

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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